Editor’s note: Seth Keshel has visited Montana several times to present on election integrity, including events in Missoula in 2021 and 2022. The event in 2021, hosted by the Montana Election Integrity Project and called “Take Back Montana: 2020 Election Analysis,” saw him speak to hundreds of attendees alongside other prominent election integrity advocates, including Dr. Douglas Frank. This article was originally published on Seth Keshel’s Substack.

Basic Election Facts
2024 Electoral Votes	4
Population (2020 Census)	1,084,225 (+94,810 since 2010)
Likely Population at 2024 Election	1,150,000

Partisanship
Governor Party	Republican
State House Majority	Republican
State Senate Majority	Republican
U.S. House Delegation	2 Republicans
U.S. Senate Delegation	1 Republican, 1 Democrat

Ethnic Demographics (2020 Census)
White	88.9%
Latino	4.1%
Black	0.6%
Other	6.4%

Presidential Preference Since 1932
Times Republican	16 Last: Donald Trump, 2020 +16.4%
Times Democrat	7 Last: Bill Clinton, 1992, +2.5%

Presidential Election Characteristics

• Ross Perot helped tip Montana into Bill Clinton’s column in 1992, otherwise it would join several other regional states in having not backed a Democrat presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.
• Yellowstone (Billings), Missoula, and Gallatin (Bozeman) Counties cast three-eighths of the vote in the 2020 presidential election.
• Montana is reliant on tourism, agriculture, timber, and mining; the latter industry was responsible for the old school Democrat base in Montana, which has crumbled in recent elections as the state has morphed into a hardcore GOP state.  Today, transplanted white liberals and Native Americans make up the core Democrat base, with the former group primarily taking up residence in Missoula and Bozeman.

2020 Review

Official Result: Donald Trump +16.4% (98,816 votes in margin)

Keshel Revised Likely Result: Donald Trump +31.8% (169,462 votes in margin)

Because Donald Trump still carried Montana by a large percentage (16.4%) in 2020, and it didn’t factor in the corrupt outcome of the presidential race, this state has gotten a pass; however, it appears to be one of the most corrupted outcomes, pound for pound, in the entire nation.  Barack Obama nearly upset John McCain in 2008, losing by 2.4%, and he did so by gaining 58,449 votes over John Kerry’s 2004 total, while John McCain dropped 22,181 of George Bush’s votes.  The total turnout in that race was up 42,305 votes. 

Since then, the Democrats have alienated its old school base, such as those in the mining industry, and have proven themselves hostile to “flyover” America’s way of life. The result was a decline of 30,320 votes for Obama in 2012, and 24,130 for Clinton from Obama, with Trump winning by 20.4% in 2016.  Trump’s own gain of 64,362 net new votes in 2020 would have been a record gain for any candidate, but Joe Biden surpassed him with a gain of 67,077 net new votes in the same election, cutting four points off Trump’s margin of victory. 

The increase in total turnout (101,852) more than doubled the previous record jump in a state with consistent population growth.  Not only do I have Trump expanding his margin, I’ve got it all the way out to 31.8%, with Yellowstone, Gallatin, Missoula, and Flathead Counties the worst offenders for fraudulent ballots.  Brad Tschida, a friend and former legislator from Montana, oversaw a local audit in Missoula that confirmed major fraud through the mail-in system, and election integrity activists in Montana have done outstanding work picking up the pieces and advocating for change (RIP, Jane Rectenwald).

2024 Preview

Prediction: Donald Trump >+20% official, >+32% clean

The writing is on the wall in Montana, and you can tell it through the bitter frustration of the mainstream media. Trump will likely continue to skyrocket in total votes, perhaps flirting with the 400,000 mark thanks to new transplants and a higher share of the Native American vote, although it is difficult to confirm since Montana doesn’t register voters by party.  I find it difficult to believe Biden can replicate the same gains with phantoms once Trump plunders the votes of real Montanans, but if he does, and the Democrats harvest out every last vote from the reservations, it may be enough to drag incumbent Democrat Senator Jon Tester across the finish line once again.

I foresee Trump continuing to crush it in Montana, going over 20% in official numbers, perhaps winning small 2020 Biden Counties such as Blaine and Big Horn, and suffering little harm elsewhere since Missoula County is the only Democrat mainstay that produced a margin over 6,000 votes in the 2020 quasi-election.  If the cheat is hampered or relaxed from 2020 levels, both Biden and Tester will be taken to the proverbial train station.

If you would like to sponsor a precinct map for any of this state’s 56 counties, e-mail mapping@goefi.org.